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From the very beginning of the pandemic, a report by the International Labor Organization (ILO) warned that the labor market would be so distorted, that it would hardly recover in 2023. Obviously, the ILO experts put the blame on the pandemic for the labor crisis, stressing that the job losses destroyed the previous “five years of progress”.

The health crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic has had an impact on employment in the European Union. Many EU Member States have implemented measures such as short-term work or financial support for companies to mitigate the negative effects of the COVID-19 crisis. It is already clear to everyone that the labor market has been severely affected by the pandemic shock, and that the recovery will be even slower due to the additional crises brought to the global economy by the war in Ukraine.

The massive loss of jobs is exacerbating poverty and inequality globally, and the most affected segments of population are the young people and the women. According to a statement issued by the ILO Director at the same time with the report, “the world of work will be different”. More recently, an analysis by Gi Group Holding highlights trends and challenges in the labor market, emphasizing companies’ confrontation with the phenomenon of migration and the level of labor imports. According to the cited analysis, the import of labor is limited in Romania to 100,000 people per year, but the local market needs qualified staff for fields that suffer from the lack of new candidates, such as production operators, welders, locksmiths, carpenters or masons, jobs that are not very attractive for the young candidates. Thus, in the coming years, the batch of 100,000 approvals, mentioned by the Romanian authorities, is expected to grow exponentially, a first indicator of what will happen on the labor market being the results of the census.

Although there is still a lack of predictability, especially caused by the conflict in Ukraine, the lack of candidates in the local market is a certainty, and it has been constant since before the pandemic. Entry into employment could be further reduced, as companies have slowed down or canceled their employment processes. Moreover, some companies may consider redundancies, increasing labor exits, in line with the macroeconomic circumstances having a direct impact on their businesses.

The world of work will be different, but we do not have yet all the necessary data to be able to define with certainty what it will look like.

Daniel Apostol

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